INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ
Forex – Firmer U.S. dollar boosts corporate interest in currency hedging
Forex – Sterling Falls Below 1.30 for First Time in 10 Months
Forex – EUR/USD off lows, still looking vulnerable
The EUR/USD pair bottomed after the release of US data (jobless claims and Philly Fed) at 1.1574, hitting he lowest level in three weeks. From the lows bounced to the upside recovering almost 50 pips. The recovery was capped by 1.1620 and at the time of writing was hovering around 1.1600/05, headed toward the third decline in a row. EUR/USD moves followed the US Dollar Index that hit fresh 1-year highs and then pulled back trimming daily gains. A retreat in US yields weakened the US dollar during the last hours. Earlier today the 1-year yield reach the highest level since June 2008. The pair rose from the 1.1580 area amid a correction of the US dollar, particularly against European currencies. The strength of the greenback versus commodity currencies remained intact at all times today. Despite the move off lows, the tone remains bearish for the EUR/SUD and a decline back below 1.1600 could add more pressure, opening the way for a test of the daily low at 1.1575. On the upside, a recovery above 1.1630 could remove the intraday downside bias.
The pound dropped below the $1.30 level on Thursday as a result of an unexpected drop in consumer spending in June, further slimming the chances of a Bank of England rate hike in August. At 10:35 GMT, GBP/USD was 1.2997, down 0.55%, the lowest level for the cable since September 2017. Retail sales month over month fell by 0.5% in June, lower than the expected increase of 0.1%. Sales for May were revised upward from 1.3% to 1.4%. The core retail sales figure, which excludes automobiles and fuel, fell by 0.6% – lower than the expected drop of 0.3%. Overall retail sales
growth for the second quarter came in at the strongest level since 2004 despite the fall in June. The month of June is purported to have been weaker as a result of hotter weather and England’s unexpected success in the World Cup. The combination of wage growth, soft inflation and now disappointing retail sales for the month of June may give the Bank of England food for thought when the Monetary Policy Committee meet in August to set interest rates.