Forex Market


Forex Market Report| Epic Research

Forex – Firmer U.S. dollar boosts corporate interest in currency hedging
Forex – Sterling Falls Below 1.30 for First Time in 10 Months
Forex – EUR/USD off lows, still looking vulnerable


The EUR/USD pair bottomed after the release of US data (jobless claims and Philly Fed) at 1.1574, hitting he lowest level in three weeks. From the lows bounced to the upside recovering almost 50 pips. The recovery was capped by 1.1620 and at the time of writing was hovering around 1.1600/05, headed toward the third decline in a row. EUR/USD moves followed the US Dollar Index that hit fresh 1-year highs and then pulled back trimming daily gains. A retreat in US yields weakened the US dollar during the last hours. Earlier today the 1-year yield reach the highest level since June 2008. The pair rose from the 1.1580 area amid a correction of the US dollar, particularly against European currencies. The strength of the greenback versus commodity currencies remained intact at all times today. Despite the move off lows, the tone remains bearish for the EUR/SUD and a decline back below 1.1600 could add more pressure, opening the way for a test of the daily low at 1.1575. On the upside, a recovery above 1.1630 could remove the intraday downside bias.


The pound dropped below the $1.30 level on Thursday as a result of an unexpected drop in consumer spending in June, further slimming the chances of a Bank of England rate hike in August. At 10:35 GMT, GBP/USD was 1.2997, down 0.55%, the lowest level for the cable since September 2017. Retail sales month over month fell by 0.5% in June, lower than the expected increase of 0.1%. Sales for May were revised upward from 1.3% to 1.4%. The core retail sales figure, which excludes automobiles and fuel, fell by 0.6% – lower than the expected drop of 0.3%. Overall retail sales
growth for the second quarter came in at the strongest level since 2004 despite the fall in June. The month of June is purported to have been weaker as a result of hotter weather and England’s unexpected success in the World Cup. The combination of wage growth, soft inflation and now disappointing retail sales for the month of June may give the Bank of England food for thought when the Monetary Policy Committee meet in August to set interest rates.




Forex Market Report| Epic Research


Forex – Dollar Hits Day’s Highs on Powell Testimony
Forex – EUR/USD tumbles to sub-1.1700 area ahead of Powell
Forex – GBP/USD tumbles to lows, around mid-1.3100s on Brexit concerns


After clinching fresh tops in the 1.1740/50 band in early trade, EUR/USD met a wave of selling orders and has now retreated to the 1.1700/1.1690 band. The pair gave away initial gains beyond 1.1700 the figure and is now remain under pressure in light of the upcoming semi-annual testimony by Fed’s J.Powell before the Senate Banking Committee. USD gathered extra traction after US June’s Industrial and Manufacturing Production expanded beyond consensus at a monthly 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. On the not-so-bright-side, Capacity Utilization Rate came in at 78.0%. missing estimates albeit higher than May’s 77.7%. Looking ahead, investors expect Powell to deliver a message in line with the statement published at the June meeting, although attention has also shifted to the yield curve and the continuation of the gradual path when comes to raising rates. At the moment, the pair is losing 0.12% at 1.1696 facing the next support at 1.1663 (21-day sma) seconded by 1.1615 (low Jul.13) and finally 1.1527 (low Jun.29).


The GBP/USD pair extended its sharp intraday slide and tumbled around 120-pips from the post-UK jobs data swing high level of 1.3269. The latest UK political headlines, wherein Labour party members were said to support the amendment offered by rebel Tory MPs to keep Britain in the customs union after Brexit raised concerns about the UK PM Theresa May’s future and prompted some aggressive selling around the British Pound. This coupled with resurgent US Dollar demand, amid expectations about an upbeat economic outlook from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual congressional testimony, added to the downward pressure surrounding the major. The ongoing sharp decline could also be attributed to some cross-driven weakness, steaming out of a sudden spike witnessed around the EUR/GBPcross.



Forex Market Update


Forex – Dollar Retreats From 2-Week Highs as GBP/USD Rebounds
Forex – GBP: Strong UK Data may Boost GBP, However, Brexit Overhang Remains
Forex – EUR/USD recovers from 1-week low and erases daily losses


The EUR/USD pair recovered ground after the beginning of the American session rising from 1.1612, 1-week low, to 1.1670, slightly below daily highs. The pair remained above 1.1650 after the release of the Federal Reserve monetary policy report that Powell will present next week to Congress. According to the document, prospective economic conditions call for further gradual removal of monetary policy accommodation. The report had no significant impact on the US dollar as it added no new information. Despite recovering against the US dollar, the euro turned lower versus the pound. The slide of EUR/GBP could have limited the upside in EUR/USD. On a weekly
basis, the pair is about to post the first slide after rising during the previous there weeks. Overall, it continues to move within the 1.1800 – 1.1500 wide range. EUR/USD rose back above the 20-day moving average that stands at 1.1650 and is again a support level to consider.


The dollar retreated from a two-week high against its rivals Friday, pressured by a rebound in the pound from an 11-day low. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.01% to 94.56, after hitting a two-week high of 95.00. GBP/USD rebounded from an 11-day low of $1.3103 to $1.3213, after U.S. President Donald Trump walked back his criticism of British Prime Minister Theresa May, and claimed a U.K.-U.S. trade deal was still possible. That eased investor fears that Britain would struggle to secure a trade deal with the United States as Trump had reportedly told the Sun newspaper on Thursday that May’s Brexit plan may “kill” Britain’s chances of such a deal. Elsewhere, China’s trade surplus with the U.S. hit a record of nearly $29 billion, raising the risk of deepening its trade-related rift with the United States.



Epic Research : Forex Market Update


Forex – Dollar Slips Lower Before Fed Rate Decision
Forex – Sterling Touches Day’s Lows after UK Inflation Data
Forex – EUR/USD climbs to session tops near 1.1780 ahead of FOMC


The dollar and the euro were little changed in rangebound trade on Wednesday as traders awaited a Federal Reserve policy announcement later in the day and looked ahead to Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting. The U.S. dollar index, which
measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was trading at 93.88 by 03:46 AM ET (07:46 AM GMT), little changed for the day after rising 0.29%. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the second time this year
at the conclusion of its policy setting meeting later in the day. With a rate hike almost fully priced in, markets are focusing on whether the Fed will signal hiking rates four times this year, rather than the three times its indicated earlier in the year. The dollar
rose to fresh three week highs against the yen, with USD/JPY rising 0.21% to 110.59. The euro was almost unchanged against the dollar, with EUR/USD last at 1.1746.


The pound slid to the day’s lows on Wednesday after data showing thatUK inflation remained steady at a one-year low on May, despite pressure from higher oil prices. GBP/USD hit lows of 1.1312 after the release of the data and was trading at 1.3319 by 05:19 AM ET (09:19 AM GMT). The Office for National Statistics reported
that the annual rate of inflation rose by 2.4% in May, unchanged from the previous month, which was a one year low and in line with expectations. Rising motor fuel prices produced the largest upward contribution to inflation, the ONS said, reflecting increases in crude oil prices. Underlying inflation rose by 2.1% on a year-over-year
basis, matching the previous month and also in line with forecasts. Inflation remains below wage growth, even after data on Tuesday showing that wage growth slowed slightly in the three months to April. The steep drop in sterling in the wake of the June 2017 Brexit referendum drove up the cost of imports, leading to a spike in inflation.


Forex vs Stocks; A Comparison for Singapore Traders | GBP/USD | EUR/USD

One thing that everybody considering exchanging Forex is whether it’s the correct decision. There are different alternatives that you’ve heard significantly more about – particularly on the off chance that you have viewed monetary dramatizations. At last, the inquiry comes down to which is better – Forex or stocks?

This is a major civil argument, and both have their followers, however how about we attempt take a gander and no more vital components that will enable you to pick.


Area was once extremely important here. It used to be that irrefutable stock must be exchanged specific focuses – the New York Stock Exchange, the London Stock Exchange, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, to give some examples. You must be available, or exchange as a substitute through a specialist. There were along these lines impediments on the measure of individuals ready to get required, as the exchanging floor could just fit such a large number of.

Forex exchanging, then again, was never bound to a specific territory.

Presently nonetheless, this is a debatable issue. Money related exchanging is for the most part done through an electronic system, which permits anybody with web get to (peruse: any broker) to open a record with a merchant and access the market from home.

Edge and use

Stock and Forex representatives both offer records with little least stores. Be that as it may, what potential for development would you be able to get with those little stores?

Stock representatives for the most part offer 1:2 use – at the outrageous. Forex agent, then again, can offer 1:50 as a base! That implies, in the event that you contribute $1,000 you can possibly make $2,000 on the stock exchange, and $50,000 on the Forex advertise.

In any case, high use can be an awesome hindrance for apprentice merchants. It makes significantly more of a probability that they’ll wipe out their records in a single awful exchange. The significant yields are appealing, and can be to a great degree useful, yet high use requires a considerable measure of care and a ton of hazard.

Another factor here, is that Forex specialists charge much lower commissions than stock agents. This is clearly a major preferred standpoint for Forex.

Forex has the preferred standpoint here because of the potential for considerably higher adaptability and returns.

Round the clock

Securities exchanges are open when the stock trade is open. This compares to around 8 hours every day, 5 days seven days, Forex markets are open 24 hours per day, 5 days seven days. This is on the grounds that, because of the broad scope of time zones, Forex is continually exchanging.

In spite of the fact that there are specific circumstances at which instability is higher and exchanging is more advantageous, Forex remains significantly more accessible than the stock trade regarding hours in the day.

Assortment and adaptability

The stock trade offers a colossal assortment of exchanging instruments. Each straightforwardly asserted association has their stock accessible. This makes finding an exchange a great deal harder for a long haul central dealer, except if s/he has a quite certain intrigue.

Forex, then again, is for the most part used to exchange the majors. The US dollar is incorporated into 80% of activities. It’s far simpler to take after the market when it is so profoundly affected by one player.

Simplicity of exchange

Stocks are a greater amount of a venture than a theory device. When you have your hands on particular stocks, it can be hard to offload them, particularly if the cost is falling.

Forex has a significantly higher liquidity. It’s constantly simple to purchase and offer, as you’re exchanging one cash for another.

All things being equal, with regards to Forex versus stocks I think Forex thumps the stock exchange hands. I’m clearly somewhat one-sided being a Forex dealer, yet when you analyze the focal points over weaknesses I think you’ll see that Forex wins out. Regardless of whether you choose to exchange Forex or money markets, I emphatically encourage you to locate an accomplished mentor who is really exchanging utilizing the methodologies he/she





Assumption Gives EURUSD Mixed Signal



Dealers NET-LONG UP BY 22.8%

EURUSD: Retail dealer information indicates 56.2% of merchants are net-long with the proportion of brokers long to short at 1.29 to 1. Truth be told, merchants have stayed net-since a long time ago Apr 30 when EURUSD exchanged close to 1.21686; cost has moved 3.9% lower from that point forward. The quantity of brokers net-long is 22.8% higher than yesterday and 3.4% higher from a week ago, while the quantity of dealers net-short is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 8.6% higher from a week ago.


We ordinarily take a contrarian view to swarm conclusion, and the reality merchants are net-long proposes EURUSD costs may keep on falling. Situating is more net-long than yesterday however less net-long from a week ago. The blend of current supposition and late changes gives us a further blended EURUSD exchanging inclination.


Epic Research : FX Strategy


As a thump on impact of the showy behavior in European legislative issues, rate desires have begun to get pushed-out around the US and the Federal Reserve. While a climb in half a month at the bank’s June meeting is still high likelihood, the possibility of an aggregate of four climbs this year out of the Fed looks a lot more faulty, with chances as of at the beginning of today down to 27%. This has assisted the US Dollar with continueing pulling back after the fizzled endeavor at 95.00 before in the week; and as we saw on shorter-term diagrams, there’s a case to be made for short-side procedures in the US Dollar. Coming into this week, we had set up AUD/USD and NZD/USD for that situation, and with those business sectors indicating fluctuating degrees of improvement, we kept on looking to an adjusted approach around the US Dollar as we approach tomorrow’s NFP report.


The drop in EUR/USD was quick and fierce, and when we re-experienced this key help zone in transit down, this was an insignificant hindrance that moderated the move over several days. In any case, – this level had played out a lot in the last third of a year ago with various articulations, and prior at the beginning of today, costs ricocheted up to this zone to discover a touch of opposition. This zone keeps running from 1.1685-1.1736, as bound by several more extended term Fibonacci levels, and this region can substantiate short-side plays. On the off chance that costs don’t remain beneath 1.1750, another potential region of obstruction exists from 1.1821-1.1855, and this could likewise be a region to arrange short-side plays should the present zone of opposition not hold.




A component of help at last began to appear in Cable (GBP/USD), and this is the zone that we’ve been following that keeps running from 1.3269-1.3321. The recent days have seen costs firm inside this zone, and the match has bumped back towards the 1.3300 zone. In any case, merchants have stayed dynamic, and given how oversold the combine was coming into this week, we could be seeing all the more a short-press than a genuine bullish move. This features a similar zone of potential obstruction that we were taking a gander at prior in the week around 1.3400, and this is something that would benefit from outside assistance by Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow. On the off chance that we see a whirlwind shortcoming, this could push GBP/USD somewhat higher, and in the event that we do see bring down high opposition set-in at or around that 1.3400-zone, the entryway opens for short-side setups.


We had taken a gander at the short-side of USD/CHF on Tuesday as a bearish-USD play, and that move has kept on demonstrating guarantee as Franc-quality has tilted the match further beneath the equality level. This keeps the short-side of USD/CHF of enthusiasm insofar as costs stay beneath 1.0000, and longer-term targets could be coordinated towards the blended region of potential help around the .9700-handle.


Yesterday’s BoC expedited a solid Canadian Dollar, and after that the present tax talk switched that move. We took a gander at the possibility of playing inversions, concentrating on CAD quality and hoping to blur this current morning’s feature driven pop. For whatever length of time that costs stay underneath 1.3000, short-side swings remain an appealing choice.


The combine keeps on enticing the help zone that we’ve been following that keeps running from 108.62-109.19. Shorter-term value activity demonstrates a lacking reaction from bears, be that as it may, and this makes the short-side of the combine somewhat less appealing. The long side of the combine isn’t very appealing either, as bulls have been not able push the match with much observable quality over the previous week. This could, be that as it may, be utilized to base into different exchanges, addressing the potential for short-side EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY situations.


This was the second combine we were following for USD-shortcoming this week, to a great extent looking to the more drawn out term extend that remaining parts in the match. This was our favored match for USD-quality in April as we hoped to play the short-side of that range. With that bearish subject presently evaluated in, we began to take after the long side for USD shortcoming as one of our FX Setups during the current week. With the match currently exchanging back over the .7000 level, that topic stays feasible. We took a gander at a few distinctive methods for working with this move.




Forex Technical Analysis : Japanese Yen


  • USD/JPY has vacillated, however it stays above numerous key close term bolsters
  • With enter central information in the offing, now won’t not be the best time to venture in
  • GBP/JPY’s viewpoint appears somewhat more downbeat

    The Japanese Yen is arranging an extremely unassuming fightback against the US Dollar following quite a while of tenacious bullishness towards the greenback.

    USD/JPY appears to be probably to have made some sort of best finally Monday’s intraday high. That came in at 111.39. The US Dollar has been declining since, some portion of a wide based retracement which has seen it bring down against the New Zealand and Australian Dollars as well, regardless of whether the Euro stays under a touch of weight because of political stresses in Italy.

    All things considered, it may not bode well to wager on a far reaching turnaround in US Dollar slant presently. USD/JPY’s retracement has been very unobtrusive and for the minute in any event appears to be constrained to a help zone got from the past huge pinnacles, which were made toward the beginning of February.


    Regardless of whether these give route once a day, bolster in the vicinity of 109.00 and 110.00 looks genuinely strong. It appears to be likely that what we are seeing here is a touch of combination that Dollar bulls could honestly do with, having pushed the match’s force up to levels at which it was beginning to look a little overbought.

    The uncommitted may now do well to hold up until the point that business sectors have seen the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last money related arrangement meeting. These are expected for discharge on Wednesday, or early Thursday morning for Asia Pacific financial specialists. On the off chance that they fortify the Fed stays by some separation the most forceful arrangement tightener in the created world, it’s difficult to see the US Dollar falling extremely far. Without a doubt such a message may encourage Dollar bulls to have another tilt at those Monday highs.

    A more tepid understanding of the Fed could see a more extensive slide USD/JPY. Anyway even the initial, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the ascent since early April comes somehow beneath the market at 109.79.


    While that is secure the possibility of a more genuine Dollar inversion appears to be sparse.

    In the mean time the UK Pound likewise appears to have bested out against the Japanese cash this week, and its anticipation looks somewhat gloomier. Quick GBP/JPY center is around a group of presumably unobtrusive help at the current month’s lows.


    Should that give route at that point there’s very little between the Pound and finish inversion of the move up from March.


Rupee picks up 10 paise to 67.70 against dollar

Belying fears about surging unrefined costs, the rupee figured out how to hold its ground against the US money for the second-in a row day, picking up by 10 paise to end at 67.70 a dollar.

The Indian money demonstrated shockingly flexible in spite of a sharp surge in worldwide rough costs which alarmingly touched a high of USD 80 a barrel on supply press.

Suspected overwhelming money advertise liquidity intercession by the Reserve Bank of India transcendently helped the rupee to remain above water in the midst of bullish abroad feeling.

The home unit, which is the most noticeably awful performing Asian market cash, is by all accounts very nearly recuperation subsequent to diving to a crisp 16-month low of 68.15 on Wednesday, a forex merchant said.

Intensifying residential macros against the dreary setting of bubbling unrefined costs and approaching Fed rate climb fears alongside dollar quality has been the key ruling power in forex advertises lately.

On the vitality front, unrefined costs shot up to hit USD 80 a barrel out of the blue since November 2014 on developing stresses of a sharp drop in Iranian oil sends out in the coming a very long time because of recharged US sanctions, lessening supply in an as of now fixing market.

The Brent rough prospects, a worldwide benchmark, was exchanging higher at USD 79.97 a barrel after quickly hitting USD 80 in early Asian exchange.

Meanwhile, the dollar was drifting close to its largest amounts in five months against a container of other real monetary forms as rising US government security yields kept on supporting interest for the money.

Neighborhood values, notwithstanding, kept on seeing huge loosening up as anxious speculators forgot about cash in the midst of political wrangling in Karnataka and solidifying raw petroleum costs.

Expanding its recuperation energy, the rupee continued higher at 67.72 from overnight close of 67.80 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) showcase on supported dollar offering by banks and exporters.

Picking up a solid footing notwithstanding facilitating dollar weight, the rupee touched an intraday high of 67.58 in mid morning bargains, however in the long run pared early solid increases to end at 67.70, demonstrating a pick up of 10 paise, or 0.14 for each penny.

The RBI, then, settled the reference rate for the dollar at 67.7156 and for the euro at 79.8909.

Then, the yield on the benchmark 10-year government security developing in 2028 diminished to 7.88 for every penny.

The dollar file, which measures the greenback’s an incentive against a bin of six noteworthy monetary standards, was higher at 93.38.

In the cross cash exchange, the rupee fortified against the pound sterling to settle at 91.31 for every pound from 91.41 and solidified against the euro to end at 79.79 from 79.85 prior.

It likewise solidified against the Japanese Yen to close at 61.21 for every 100 yens when contrasted with 61.55.

Somewhere else, the regular money, euro stayed worried against the greenback on theory that Italy’s conceivable new coalition government would hope to discount a sizeable lump of Italian open obligation, delivering the most exceedingly awful of market fears.

The British pound is exchanging humbly bring down in the wake of sliding over from early highs on reports that the UK is set up to remain in the traditions association past 2021.

In forward market today, premium for dollar floated additionally attributable to reliable getting from exporters.

The benchmark half year forward premium payable in September facilitated to 93.25-95.25 paise from 95-96.50 paise and the far-forward February 2019 contract moved down to 227-229 paise from 229-230 paise beforehand.


Japanese Yen : USD/JPY Technical Analysis


  • The Japanese Yen’s beating at the Dollar’s hands goes on
  • The principal reason for it seems to have extended
  • The Australian Dollar is shriveling against the Japanese money

    The Japanese Yen stays under grave weight against the US Dollar from a principal point of view.

    The most recent extremely feeble development information from Japan brought the drapery down on a nine-quarter keep running of monetary development. It has likewise thrown mists over the nation’s ‘Abenomics’ change design and, without a doubt, kicked any prospect of more tightly financial approach from the Bank of Japan far into the long grass.

    Actually this development shortcoming has just supported an as of now reinforcing US Dollar. USD/JPY now plays by and by with the highs of early February which are around current levels.

    On the off chance that Dollar bulls can hold their nerve up here, at that point their next target will be late January’s highs in the 111.50 district which thusly monitor the way move down the year’s pinnacles. These would appear to be famously reachable right now given the yawning and, apparently broadening hole in money related approach among Tokyo and Beijing. However advance toward them will most likely be estimated and set apart by times of solidification.


    Inversions will presumably discover bolster at the current up-channel base, which by and by comes in at 109.42 or somewhere in the vicinity. This channel has been genuinely all around regarded both to the upside and the down, however more clear Dollar bulls may well need to see another upside test soon. After all that upper bound remains very some route over the market, for all the greenback’s present power, at 111.43.


    The Australian Dollar has been another remarkable casualty of US Dollar quality however it is likewise withering against the Yen. AUD/JPY appears to have made yet another lower high on its day by day graph in the previous couple of days, with the attention by and by on the drawback.

    Bulls should shield the past critical low at JPY81.20 on the off chance that they’re not to need to manage a plausible more extensive slide the distance down to April’s lows of JPY80.55.


    A fall this far would put genuine question marks over the whole ascent up from late 2016’s lows, which came in at JPY75.10.

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