Forex Market

5Jun
best-times-to-day-trade-the-eurusd-589e2b393df78c4758e7a996

Assumption Gives EURUSD Mixed Signal

5

 

Dealers NET-LONG UP BY 22.8%

EURUSD: Retail dealer information indicates 56.2% of merchants are net-long with the proportion of brokers long to short at 1.29 to 1. Truth be told, merchants have stayed net-since a long time ago Apr 30 when EURUSD exchanged close to 1.21686; cost has moved 3.9% lower from that point forward. The quantity of brokers net-long is 22.8% higher than yesterday and 3.4% higher from a week ago, while the quantity of dealers net-short is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 8.6% higher from a week ago.

EURUSD PRICE UNCLEAR BASED ON SENTIMENT

We ordinarily take a contrarian view to swarm conclusion, and the reality merchants are net-long proposes EURUSD costs may keep on falling. Situating is more net-long than yesterday however less net-long from a week ago. The blend of current supposition and late changes gives us a further blended EURUSD exchanging inclination.

1Jun
673016_c617

Epic Research : FX Strategy

US DOLLAR PULLBACK CONTINUES AS RATE EXPECTATIONS SOFTEN

As a thump on impact of the showy behavior in European legislative issues, rate desires have begun to get pushed-out around the US and the Federal Reserve. While a climb in half a month at the bank’s June meeting is still high likelihood, the possibility of an aggregate of four climbs this year out of the Fed looks a lot more faulty, with chances as of at the beginning of today down to 27%. This has assisted the US Dollar with continueing pulling back after the fizzled endeavor at 95.00 before in the week; and as we saw on shorter-term diagrams, there’s a case to be made for short-side procedures in the US Dollar. Coming into this week, we had set up AUD/USD and NZD/USD for that situation, and with those business sectors indicating fluctuating degrees of improvement, we kept on looking to an adjusted approach around the US Dollar as we approach tomorrow’s NFP report.

EUR/USD TESTING KEY RESISTANCE

The drop in EUR/USD was quick and fierce, and when we re-experienced this key help zone in transit down, this was an insignificant hindrance that moderated the move over several days. In any case, – this level had played out a lot in the last third of a year ago with various articulations, and prior at the beginning of today, costs ricocheted up to this zone to discover a touch of opposition. This zone keeps running from 1.1685-1.1736, as bound by several more extended term Fibonacci levels, and this region can substantiate short-side plays. On the off chance that costs don’t remain beneath 1.1750, another potential region of obstruction exists from 1.1821-1.1855, and this could likewise be a region to arrange short-side plays should the present zone of opposition not hold.

EUR/USD FOUR-HOUR CHART: FINDS RESISTANCE AT A FAMILIAR AREA

1-6

GBP/USD HOLDS THE LOWS, FOR NOW

A component of help at last began to appear in Cable (GBP/USD), and this is the zone that we’ve been following that keeps running from 1.3269-1.3321. The recent days have seen costs firm inside this zone, and the match has bumped back towards the 1.3300 zone. In any case, merchants have stayed dynamic, and given how oversold the combine was coming into this week, we could be seeing all the more a short-press than a genuine bullish move. This features a similar zone of potential obstruction that we were taking a gander at prior in the week around 1.3400, and this is something that would benefit from outside assistance by Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow. On the off chance that we see a whirlwind shortcoming, this could push GBP/USD somewhat higher, and in the event that we do see bring down high opposition set-in at or around that 1.3400-zone, the entryway opens for short-side setups.

USD/CHF CONTINUES TO TURN LOWER

We had taken a gander at the short-side of USD/CHF on Tuesday as a bearish-USD play, and that move has kept on demonstrating guarantee as Franc-quality has tilted the match further beneath the equality level. This keeps the short-side of USD/CHF of enthusiasm insofar as costs stay beneath 1.0000, and longer-term targets could be coordinated towards the blended region of potential help around the .9700-handle.

USD/CAD WITH A HEAVY TWO DAYS OF VOLATILITY

Yesterday’s BoC expedited a solid Canadian Dollar, and after that the present tax talk switched that move. We took a gander at the possibility of playing inversions, concentrating on CAD quality and hoping to blur this current morning’s feature driven pop. For whatever length of time that costs stay underneath 1.3000, short-side swings remain an appealing choice.

USD/JPY BECOMES MESSY

The combine keeps on enticing the help zone that we’ve been following that keeps running from 108.62-109.19. Shorter-term value activity demonstrates a lacking reaction from bears, be that as it may, and this makes the short-side of the combine somewhat less appealing. The long side of the combine isn’t very appealing either, as bulls have been not able push the match with much observable quality over the previous week. This could, be that as it may, be utilized to base into different exchanges, addressing the potential for short-side EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY situations.

NZD/USD FOR SHORT-USD STRATEGIES

This was the second combine we were following for USD-shortcoming this week, to a great extent looking to the more drawn out term extend that remaining parts in the match. This was our favored match for USD-quality in April as we hoped to play the short-side of that range. With that bearish subject presently evaluated in, we began to take after the long side for USD shortcoming as one of our FX Setups during the current week. With the match currently exchanging back over the .7000 level, that topic stays feasible. We took a gander at a few distinctive methods for working with this move.

NZD/USD WEEKLY CHART: PRICES BOUNCE FROM RANGE SUPPORT

1-6-1

23May
yen_bill-2-512

Forex Technical Analysis : Japanese Yen

JAPANESE YEN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TALKING POINTS:

  • USD/JPY has vacillated, however it stays above numerous key close term bolsters
  • With enter central information in the offing, now won’t not be the best time to venture in
  • GBP/JPY’s viewpoint appears somewhat more downbeat

    The Japanese Yen is arranging an extremely unassuming fightback against the US Dollar following quite a while of tenacious bullishness towards the greenback.

    USD/JPY appears to be probably to have made some sort of best finally Monday’s intraday high. That came in at 111.39. The US Dollar has been declining since, some portion of a wide based retracement which has seen it bring down against the New Zealand and Australian Dollars as well, regardless of whether the Euro stays under a touch of weight because of political stresses in Italy.

    All things considered, it may not bode well to wager on a far reaching turnaround in US Dollar slant presently. USD/JPY’s retracement has been very unobtrusive and for the minute in any event appears to be constrained to a help zone got from the past huge pinnacles, which were made toward the beginning of February.

    23-1

    Regardless of whether these give route once a day, bolster in the vicinity of 109.00 and 110.00 looks genuinely strong. It appears to be likely that what we are seeing here is a touch of combination that Dollar bulls could honestly do with, having pushed the match’s force up to levels at which it was beginning to look a little overbought.

    The uncommitted may now do well to hold up until the point that business sectors have seen the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last money related arrangement meeting. These are expected for discharge on Wednesday, or early Thursday morning for Asia Pacific financial specialists. On the off chance that they fortify the Fed stays by some separation the most forceful arrangement tightener in the created world, it’s difficult to see the US Dollar falling extremely far. Without a doubt such a message may encourage Dollar bulls to have another tilt at those Monday highs.

    A more tepid understanding of the Fed could see a more extensive slide USD/JPY. Anyway even the initial, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the ascent since early April comes somehow beneath the market at 109.79.

    23-2

    While that is secure the possibility of a more genuine Dollar inversion appears to be sparse.

    In the mean time the UK Pound likewise appears to have bested out against the Japanese cash this week, and its anticipation looks somewhat gloomier. Quick GBP/JPY center is around a group of presumably unobtrusive help at the current month’s lows.

    23-3

    Should that give route at that point there’s very little between the Pound and finish inversion of the move up from March.

18May
bl29_think_dollar

Rupee picks up 10 paise to 67.70 against dollar

Belying fears about surging unrefined costs, the rupee figured out how to hold its ground against the US money for the second-in a row day, picking up by 10 paise to end at 67.70 a dollar.

The Indian money demonstrated shockingly flexible in spite of a sharp surge in worldwide rough costs which alarmingly touched a high of USD 80 a barrel on supply press.

Suspected overwhelming money advertise liquidity intercession by the Reserve Bank of India transcendently helped the rupee to remain above water in the midst of bullish abroad feeling.

The home unit, which is the most noticeably awful performing Asian market cash, is by all accounts very nearly recuperation subsequent to diving to a crisp 16-month low of 68.15 on Wednesday, a forex merchant said.

Intensifying residential macros against the dreary setting of bubbling unrefined costs and approaching Fed rate climb fears alongside dollar quality has been the key ruling power in forex advertises lately.

On the vitality front, unrefined costs shot up to hit USD 80 a barrel out of the blue since November 2014 on developing stresses of a sharp drop in Iranian oil sends out in the coming a very long time because of recharged US sanctions, lessening supply in an as of now fixing market.

The Brent rough prospects, a worldwide benchmark, was exchanging higher at USD 79.97 a barrel after quickly hitting USD 80 in early Asian exchange.

Meanwhile, the dollar was drifting close to its largest amounts in five months against a container of other real monetary forms as rising US government security yields kept on supporting interest for the money.

Neighborhood values, notwithstanding, kept on seeing huge loosening up as anxious speculators forgot about cash in the midst of political wrangling in Karnataka and solidifying raw petroleum costs.

Expanding its recuperation energy, the rupee continued higher at 67.72 from overnight close of 67.80 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) showcase on supported dollar offering by banks and exporters.

Picking up a solid footing notwithstanding facilitating dollar weight, the rupee touched an intraday high of 67.58 in mid morning bargains, however in the long run pared early solid increases to end at 67.70, demonstrating a pick up of 10 paise, or 0.14 for each penny.

The RBI, then, settled the reference rate for the dollar at 67.7156 and for the euro at 79.8909.

Then, the yield on the benchmark 10-year government security developing in 2028 diminished to 7.88 for every penny.

The dollar file, which measures the greenback’s an incentive against a bin of six noteworthy monetary standards, was higher at 93.38.

In the cross cash exchange, the rupee fortified against the pound sterling to settle at 91.31 for every pound from 91.41 and solidified against the euro to end at 79.79 from 79.85 prior.

It likewise solidified against the Japanese Yen to close at 61.21 for every 100 yens when contrasted with 61.55.

Somewhere else, the regular money, euro stayed worried against the greenback on theory that Italy’s conceivable new coalition government would hope to discount a sizeable lump of Italian open obligation, delivering the most exceedingly awful of market fears.

The British pound is exchanging humbly bring down in the wake of sliding over from early highs on reports that the UK is set up to remain in the traditions association past 2021.

In forward market today, premium for dollar floated additionally attributable to reliable getting from exporters.

The benchmark half year forward premium payable in September facilitated to 93.25-95.25 paise from 95-96.50 paise and the far-forward February 2019 contract moved down to 227-229 paise from 229-230 paise beforehand.

16May
USDJPY-with-Japanese-flag

Japanese Yen : USD/JPY Technical Analysis

JAPANESE YEN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TALKING POINTS:

  • The Japanese Yen’s beating at the Dollar’s hands goes on
  • The principal reason for it seems to have extended
  • The Australian Dollar is shriveling against the Japanese money

    The Japanese Yen stays under grave weight against the US Dollar from a principal point of view.

    The most recent extremely feeble development information from Japan brought the drapery down on a nine-quarter keep running of monetary development. It has likewise thrown mists over the nation’s ‘Abenomics’ change design and, without a doubt, kicked any prospect of more tightly financial approach from the Bank of Japan far into the long grass.

    Actually this development shortcoming has just supported an as of now reinforcing US Dollar. USD/JPY now plays by and by with the highs of early February which are around current levels.

    On the off chance that Dollar bulls can hold their nerve up here, at that point their next target will be late January’s highs in the 111.50 district which thusly monitor the way move down the year’s pinnacles. These would appear to be famously reachable right now given the yawning and, apparently broadening hole in money related approach among Tokyo and Beijing. However advance toward them will most likely be estimated and set apart by times of solidification.

    16-5

    Inversions will presumably discover bolster at the current up-channel base, which by and by comes in at 109.42 or somewhere in the vicinity. This channel has been genuinely all around regarded both to the upside and the down, however more clear Dollar bulls may well need to see another upside test soon. After all that upper bound remains very some route over the market, for all the greenback’s present power, at 111.43.

    AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR WILTING TOO

    The Australian Dollar has been another remarkable casualty of US Dollar quality however it is likewise withering against the Yen. AUD/JPY appears to have made yet another lower high on its day by day graph in the previous couple of days, with the attention by and by on the drawback.

    Bulls should shield the past critical low at JPY81.20 on the off chance that they’re not to need to manage a plausible more extensive slide the distance down to April’s lows of JPY80.55.

    16-5-1

    A fall this far would put genuine question marks over the whole ascent up from late 2016’s lows, which came in at JPY75.10.

14May
Forex

Epic Research : Forex Market Insight

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex -Dollar On Track to Snap 4 Week Winning Streak as EUR/USD Gains
Forex -EUR/USD consolidates recovery from 4 month lows
Forex -GBP/USD trims daily gains, holds in weekly range

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is rising on Friday for the second day in a row but it was unable to extend gains during the American session as the US Dollar recovered strength on the back of rising US yields. The euro peaked on Friday at 1.1969, the highest since Monday. The area around 1.1970 capped the upside. EUR/USD is about to end the week, steady  moving  in  a  range  between  1.1930  and  1.1960, marginally  below  the  level it closed last week. EUR/USD recovered  ground  after  falling  on  Wednesday  to  1.1821, the  lowest  since  December.The weekly close far from the lows could signal some consolidation ahead. Some bearish pressure is still seen. The weekly chart is about to form  a doji,  after rebounding at the 20 week  moving  average.Next week,key data from the Euro zone is due, including GDP, NEW survey and CPI. In the US, retail sales on Tuesday area likely to gain attraction.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD failed  again  to  break  above  1.3600  and  retreated  back  below  1.3550 amid a recovery of the US dollar across the board. Recently dropped to 1.3531 and it was  hovering around 1.3540. The greenback trimmed losses the board during the American  session  and  extended  gains  against  most  of  emerging  market  currencies. US Dollar Index Futures rose from 92.19 to 92.42 supported by a bounce in US yields that turned higher.Regarding data, the US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index (University of Michigan) for May came in at 98.8, slightly above  the  98.5  expected  by  market  analysts.  Cable  is  still  modestly  higher  for  the day  but  the  momentum  eased.  It  continues  to  move  sideways  as  it  has  been  the case since last week. GBP/USD continues to move in a consolidation range between 1.3500  and  1.3600.  Today  it  is  headed  toward  the  sixth  daily  close  between  1.3515 and 1.3550.

14

10May
Forex-trading-in-Kenya

Iforex Market Insight : Epic Research

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex- Dollar Backs Off 2018 Highs as Rally Pauses
Forex- EUR/USD could see gains extended to 1.2000/50
Forex- GBP/USD bulls challenge the 1.3600 handle as US Dollar retreats from highs

EUR/USD
The correction lower in the buck remains well and sound on Wednesday and is now allowing EUR/USD to  move  closer  to  the  1.1900  handle,  or  session  peaks.  The  pair  is  edging higher today following the renewed softer tone around the greenback. In fact, seems USD sellers  have  stepped  in  today  in  response  to  the  strong  rebound  in  the  buck  in  recent weeks, which managed to retake the 93.00 handle and above, area last visited in December 2017. Adding to today’s offered bias in USD, US Producer Prices rose less than expected during April at an annualized 2.6% and 0.1% inter month. Core prices rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.3% over the last twelve months. At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.10% at 1.1877 facing the next hurdle at 1.1984 (10 day sma) seconded 1.2018 (200 day sma)  and  finally  1.2153  (low  Mar.1).  On  the  downside,  a  break  below  1.1823  (2018  low May 8) would open the door to 1.1768 (78.6% Fibo of November February up move) and finally 1.1718 (monthly low Dec.12 2017).

GBP/USD

The  GBP/USD  is  trading  at  around  1.3593  up  0.34%  on Wednesday  as  investors  are slowly  unwinding  their  short  GBP/USD  positions  ahead  of  the  Bank  of  England  rate decision and quarterly Inflation Report on Thursday. Cable bulls gathered some momentum and managed to orchestrate a counter trend move from the 1.3500 handle earlier in the European session to challenge the 1.3600 handle in the American session. The  US  dollar  is  trading  lower  on  Wednesday  below  the  93.00  mark  as  investors  are  taking  some  profits  off  the  table  after  US  President  Trump  announced  on Tuesday that he withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal. Adding pressure to the greenback  is  the  worse than expected  Producer  Price  Index  (PPI)  data.  The  PPI  ex Food  and  Energy  year on year  to  April  came  below  expectations  at  2.3%  against 2.4% forecast by analysts. Technically, the GBP/USD is oversold and there is a combination of unwinding short positions and bottom pickers which is keeping the cable in the 1.3500 – 1.3600 range.

10 fx

8May
mYitsjG3MjETNkI8_1280x600_q70v3

NZD/USD : Forex Technical Analysis

NZD/USD Technical Strategy: FLAT

  • Morning Star candle design indications at New Zealand Dollar skip
  • Dissimilarity on 4-hour RSI reinforces the case for ebbing offering weight
  • Rise may offer chance to offer into the more extensive bearish pattern

    The New Zealand might prepared an endeavor at recuperation against its US partner after costs slid to the most minimal level in more than four months. The presence of a bullish Morning Star candle example may go before a ricochet. Regardless of whether such a move denotes a redress or bona fide inversion stays to be seen.

    8-5
    Zooming in from the day by day outline to shorter-term situating, the setup on the four-hour time span uncovers positive RSI dissimilarity that supports the case for ebbing upside energy. Prompt pattern protection is as yet holding in any case, so it is untimely to state whether a rise or sideways float will take after.

    8-1
    Truant further affirmation, standing aside appears to be judicious. All things considered, offering into indications of fixing after a ricochet to retest slant characterizing protection close to 0.7140 appears like an alluring recommendation, were such a chance to emerge. Close term value activity will be nearly checked for advance.

4May
AUD-USD-Forex-Analysis

AUD/USD: Forex Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Technical Strategy: SHORT AT 0.7608

  • Morning Star candle design clues at Aussie Dollar rise ahead
  • Any additions prone to be restorative inside a more drawn out term descending pattern
  • Chances to add to short exchange looked for if upside move appears

    The Australian Dollar put in a bullish Morning Star candle design in the wake of touching a 11-month low against its US partner, implying a ricochet might be ahead. A week ago’s break of pattern line bolster set shape January 2016 makes for an extensively bearish predisposition nonetheless, proposing any additions from here are likely restorative.

    Starting wedge floor bolster turned-protection is at 0.7573, with a break over that opening the entryway for a retest of the 0.7636-43 region (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, March 29 low). On the other hand, a day by day close beneath the half level at 0.7482 makes ready for a test of the 61.8% Fib at 0.7327.

    4-5
    The short AUD/USD exchange was actuated at 0.7608 hit its underlying target at 0.7566 and benefit has been set up for half of the positon. The rest will stay in play, searching for drawback continuation. A rise will be dealt with as an open door scale up presentation if and when a chance to do as such introduces itself.

27Apr
nzd-usd

NZD/USD : Forex Technical Analysis

NZD/USD Technical Strategy: FLAT

* NZ Dollar on the cusp of the most exceedingly awful losing streak in almost 3 years

* Day by day, 4-hour diagram imply a remedial bob might be underway

* Searching for recuperation to yield an opening to enter short position

The New Zealand Dollar is on the cusp of the most exceedingly terrible losing streak in almost three years however a remedial bob may go before encourage shortcoming. Costs have succumbed to eight sequential to meet help at 0.7049, the half Fibonacci development. An every day close beneath that uncovered the 61.8% level at 0.6957.

27-4-1
A rearranged Hammer candle over this boundary cautions of uncertainty and a gander at shorter-term situating strengthens the case for a bob. The four-hour outline uncovers positive RSI dissimilarity as costs float underneath the 0.71 figure, indicating at ebbing drawback force that may go before a remedial rise.

27-4-2
Considering that, selecting to sit tight for a ricochet to search for offering openings appears to be judicious. Back on the day by day outline, the primary layer of noteworthy protection comes in at 0.7140 (38.2% Fib, channel floor), trailed by the 23.6% extension at 0.7254.

© Copyright 2013, All Rights Reserved, Epic Research Pvt. Ltd.