Forex Market

10Oct
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Epic Research| Forex Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Edges Higher, Yen Steady in Cautious Trade
Forex – Euro Hits 7-Week Lows as Italy Worries, Strong Dollar Weigh
Forex – GBP/USD bounces off lows, recovers farther beyond mid-1.3000s

EUR/USD

The euro extended early losses on Tuesday, falling to fresh seven-week lows as concerns over Italy’s fiscal outlook and a broadly stronger dollar weighed. EUR/USD was down 0.41% to 1.1444 by 07:16 AM ET (11:16 AM GMT), the weakest level since August 20. The single currency was pressured lower amid an ongoing row between Italy’s populist government and the European Commission over the country’s budget plans. Brussels and Rome have been at odds over the country’s budget deficit plans for the next three years, which breach EC rules on running excessive deficits and high debt. The row has seen Italian bond yields rise amid fears that the decision to increase borrowing will prove unsustainable given the country’s debt load. But the leaders of Italy’s two ruling parties have insisted they will not backtrack on their spending plans for next year.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair maintained its offered tone, for the second consecutive session, albeit has managed to recover around 30-pips from daily lows. The pair once again managed to find some support ahead of the 1.3030-25 support area and was being supported by a modest US Dollar pull-back from seven-week tops. After refreshing fresh multi-year tops earlier today, the US Treasury bond yields started retreating and prompted some USD profit-taking, which was eventually seen lending some support. The uptick, however, lacked any strong conviction/follow-through and continues to be weighed down by Conservative MP Steve Baker’s comments that the UK should not be afraid to move forward with ‘no-deal‘. Currently hovering around mid1.3000s, within striking distance of session lows, market participants now look forward to the Brexit secretary Dominic Raab’s update on the state of the Brexit negotiations for fresh impetus.

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2Oct
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Epic Research| EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD TECHNICAL STRATEGY: SHORT AT 1.1708

  • Euro counter-incline line crush implies down move spirit in play
  • RSI difference insights remedial bounce back might be likely to work out
  • Short exchange play, negation on a break above mid-1.18s

The Euro separated against the US Dollar in the wake of setting up the best close to the 1.18 figure, obviously. A break underneath help directing the rise from mid-September activated reentry short EUR/USD at 1.1708. Costs have since slowed down close to the 1.16 check, with the development of positive RSI dissimilarity indicating at ebbing drawback energy that may go before a bob.

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That need not be so fundamentally. RSI uniqueness can stamp a time of solidification before downtrend resumption. Regardless, a glance at the day by day outline proposes any close term increases might be minimal in excess of an adjustment with regards to a break underneath counter-drift bolster characterizing the rise from mid-August lows. A day by day close over the 1.1815-52 region is most likely expected to contend something else.

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In light of that, the short position will stay in play through whatever close term additions may appear, searching for more extensive shortcoming to re-rise from there on. A break beneath help in the 1.1510-1.1554 zone or a substantive-enough recuperation toward opposition over 1.18 to reset hazard/compensate parameters (and appropriately pursued by bearish resumption affirmation) will be assessed as chances to scale up the presentation.

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26Sep
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Forex Report| Epic Research

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Slides to Day’s Lows Ahead of Fed Meeting
Forex – EUR/USD clings to gains near 1.1770, US data eyed
Forex – GBP/USD now faces some consolidation – UOB

EUR/USD

EUR/USD alternates gains with losses during the first half of the week and keeps navigating the 1.1760/70 band ahead of the opening bell in Wall Street. The pair continues to navigate in the upper end of the recent range near 1.1800 the figure, although a sustainable breakout of this key resistance still remains elusive. Spot is attempting a very near term sideline theme as global markets expect the Fed decision on rates tomorrow, while jitters on the US-China trade front look mitigated for the time being. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that China cancelled its talks with the US and they’re likely to resume at some point after the US midterm elections. In the meantime, EUR faded part of the Draghi-led recent gains to 1.1800 and above amidst some pick up in the demand for the greenback and a cautious trade ahead if the FOMC gathering on Wednesday. The pair keeps its gains in the 1.1760/70 band ahead of NA open. The greenback remains sidelined above the 94.00 mark.

GBP/USD

“GBP closed higher by +0.59% (NY close of 1.3118) as it recovered some of last Friday’s steep loss. The price action is deemed as part of an on-going consolidation phase. In other words, GBP is expected to trade sideways from here, albeit likely at slightly higher range of 1.3085/1.3180”. Next 1-3 weeks: “In our last update, we expected GBP to extend its gains to the July’s peak of 1.3363. GBP subsequently staged an outsized decline that easily took out the 1.3170 ‘key support’ (low of 1.3041 on Friday). While there is no change to the neutral outlook, the break of the ‘key support’ indicates that GBP has likely made a short-term top at 1.3295 last week. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase and GBP is expected to trade sideways to slightly lower from here, likely within a broad 1.3020/1.3220 range”.

 

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25Sep

Singapore Stocks Watch: STI resumes Tuesday afternoon at 3,234.17, up 0.5%

Singapore Stocks Watch: SINGAPORE stocks continued exchanging higher after Tuesday’s meal break, with the Straits Times Index rising 15.01 focuses or 0.5 for every penny to 3,234.17 as at 1.01pm.

Gainers dwarfed failures 156 to 129, as around 524.6 million offers worth S$424.7 million altogether changed hands.

The most effectively exchanged counter was Nico Steel with 115.11 million units, up 66.67 for each penny, or 0.2 Singapore penny, to 0.5 Singapore penny. Different actives included Ezion with 68.58 million offers exchanged, up 4.17 for each penny to 7.5 Singapore pennies; and KrisEnergy with 26.07 million offers evolving hands, rising 4.55 for every penny to 11.5 Singapore pennies.

Among dynamic list stocks, OCBC Bank included 0.97 for each penny, or 11 Singapore pennies, to S$11.47, while UOB crept up 0.45 for each penny, or 12 Singapore pennies, to S$27.00

MAS uncovers most recent requirement monograph

It clarifies the office’s investigative controls over the money related area.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) uncovered its requirement monograph to give more noteworthy lucidity and straightforwardness into how MAS deflects, recognizes, explores and makes a move against breaks of the guidelines and controls it oversees, a declaration uncovered.

Also, the monograph plots how its requirement office cooperates with the other money related area oversight works in MAS to maintain Singapore’s notoriety for being a perfect and confided in monetary focus.

“At the point when unfortunate behavior happens, it is basic that MAS can recognize, explore and make unequivocal move to implement any rupture of our standards and controls,” MAS collaborator overseeing chief for capital markets Lee Boon Ngiap said. “The implementation monograph gives nitty gritty bits of knowledge into MAS’ authorization procedures and how we distinguish and manage offense cases quickly and reasonably, keeping in mind the end goal to advance market trustworthiness and customer certainty.”

The new monograph is a modified adaptation of the past one place up in January 2016. The most recent version contacts the methodology that MAS takes towards authorization, the job of implementation in the budgetary business oversight, and the key zones of MAS’ requirement practice and powers over the money related industry.

The authorization approach eyes for early location of misconduction and law infringement, compelling discouragement, and to shape business and market lead.

24Sep
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Epic Research| Forex Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Higher as Sterling Slumps on Brexit Woes
Forex – Sterling Hits Intraday Lows as May Says UK-EU at Impasse
Forex – EUR/USD: Fed should help for another visit to 1.15 – Danske Bank

EUR/USD

Next week, the Federal Reserve will meet. According to analysts from Danske Bank, continued Fed hikes should help EUR/USD revisit the 1.15 area again during the course of the autumn. “With the Fed set to stay on autopilot for now, US rates are set to stay a source of USD support. This should help cement the status of the dollar as a carry currency both in terms of the level of and the change in short-end yields.” “With the Fed still keen to continue the process of moving rates back towards ‘neutral’, it remains too early in our view for the FX market to price the Fed going on hold. This should help EUR/USD revisit the 1.15 area again during the course of the autumn.” “As the ECB is set to signal a first hike coming up at a time where the Fed could be looking to go on hold, a EUR/USD uptick will start to materialize. Indeed, it is when easing stops – rather than when hikes occur – that currency appreciation is seen, and vice versa.”

GBP/USD

The dollar rose against its rivals on Friday, as investors reined in appetite for emerging market currencies, while the pound racked up losses as the UK and EU reached an “impasse,” on a post-Brexit deal. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.40% to 93.84. UK Prime Minister Theresa May criticized the EU for rejecting her post-Brexit plans, citing it “unacceptable,” particularly as the bloc failed to put forward alternative proposals. May further claimed that the UK and EU were at an “impasse,” denting optimism for a post-Brexit deal agreement following recent reports that the EU were set to adopt a warmer approach to Brexit talks. GBP/USD fell 1.41% to $1.3075, eroding most of the week’s gain as the pair looks set to end the week roughly flat. Turkey unveiled a new economic program earlier this week to reduce its current account deficit, while South Africa’s central bank stood pat on interest rates Thursday.

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14Sep
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Epic Research| Forex Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – U.S. Dollar Slumps on Inflation Data
Forex – GBP/USD surges to 1.3100 handle on weaker US CPI figures
Forex – EUR/USD closer to 1.1700 on Draghi, softer US CPI

EUR/USD

Spot navigates fresh tops for the current month boosted by a sharp pick up in the selling pressure around the greenback post-CPI results. The disappointing results from US inflation figures forced yields of the US 10-tear benchmark to tumble to fresh lows in the 2.95% neighbourhood. The shared currency also derive some buying interest after President Draghi disappointed EUR-bears today at the ECB meeting, where the central bank left unchanged its monetary conditions. At his press conference, Draghi noted that uncertainty surrounding underlying inflation appears mitigated, while he stressed that updated forecasts on inflation and economic growth confirm the central bank’s assessment. The ECB now sees inflation running at an annualized 1.7% for the current month, 2019 and 2010, unchanged from the previous report. However, theECB revised lower its forecasts for GDP for 2018 and 2019 and now expects the economy to expand 2.0% and 1.8%, respectively.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair quickly reversed the post-BoE dip to 1.3035 area and rallied over 60-pips, to the 1.3100 neighborhood on softer US CPI figures. The US Dollar weakened across the board after the latest US consumer inflation report, released this Thursday, showed that the headline CPI increased 0.2% in August and the yearly rate dropped to 2.7% from 2.9% previous. Meanwhile, the core CPI also showed a modest 0.1% m/m rise and indicated that the recent upturn in inflation might have already started easing, dampening prospects for aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening cycle. The same was evident from a sudden plunge in the US Treasury bond yields, which exerted some additional downward pressure on the greenback and lifted the pair to an intraday high level of 1.3097, the highest since August 2. Against the backdrop the latest Brexit optimism, the prevalent USD selling bias now seems to have opened room for an extension of the pair’s ongoing positive momentum, possibly towards testing 100-day SMA hurdle near the 1.3200 handle.

 

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12Sep
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Forex Report| Epic Research

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – U.S. Dollar Flat, Euro Rises Amid Geopolitical Concerns
Forex – Euro rises as Italian debt concerns ease; sterling builds on gains
Forex – GBP/USD could rebound further and test 1.3170 – UOB

EUR/USD

The U.S. dollar was flat against other currencies on Tuesday, as investors worried about Chinese-U.S. trade relations. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.03% to 95.09 as of 5:19 AM ET (9:19 GMT). Trade war tensions continued to worry investors. Robert E. Lighthizer, the United States trade representative met with European Union officials in Brussels on Monday to discuss trade tariffs. While Lighthizer called the talks “constructive,” a deal is not likely to be reached as soon as the White House administration would like. Meanwhile U.S. President Donald Trump wants to impose tariffs on almost all imported Chinese goods .China’s foreign ministry said on Monday that it would respond to any new steps on trade. The dollar rose against the safe-haven yen, with USD/JPY increasing 0.22% to 111.36. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to invest in the Japanese yen, which is considered a safe asset during periods of risk aversion.

GBP/USD

“GBP rocketed upon Barnier’s comment and took out last Friday’s peak of 1.3029 (overnight high of 1.3052). The rally appears to be running ahead of itself but there appears to be enough momentum for GBP to test the strong 1.3070 resistance first before it should settle down (next resistance at 1.3105 is likely out of reach). On the downside, only a break of 1.2965 would indicate that a short-term top is in place (minor support is at 1.2990)”. “GBP continues to trade in a volatile manner as it dropped to a low of 1.2898 yesterday before rocketing to hit an overnight high of 1.3052 (after Barnier’s comments). The overnight high was just above the top of our expected 1.2800/1.3050 consolidation range and the subsequent strong daily closing in NY suggests there is room for further GBP gains. That said, it is too soon to expect a shift to a bullish phase even though GBP could test 1.3170 from here. For now, we view any strength as a corrective rebound and not the start of a sustained up-move.

 

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10Aug
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Forex Market Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ
Forex – US Dollar Digestion Comes Back Ahead of US Inflation
Forex – GBP/USD spikes and retreats, back below 1.2900 handle
Forex – EUR/USD stays below 1.1600 post-US data

EUR/USD

The single currency keeps the negative ground so far today and is now prompting EUR/USD to navigate within the daily range below the 1.1600 milestone. The pair remained apathetic despite today’s US docket came in on a mixed tone. In fact, US Producer Prices came in flat on a monthly basis during July and rose 3.3% over the last twelve months. Prices excluding energy and food costs gained 0.1% inter-month and 2.7% on a yearly basis. Further US releases saw Initial Claims rising 213K WoW, bettering estimates and taking the 4-week Average to 214.25K from 214.75K. In the meantime, spot is looking to consolidate after failing to break above the 1.1630 region earlier in the week. The inability to move further north of this area could originate some consolidation in the near term with the likelihood of a deeper retracement afterwards.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair reversed an early dip to fresh 11-month lows and spiked beyond the 1.2900 handle in the last hour, albeit quickly retreated around 20-25 pips. Incoming Brexit headlines continue to play a key role in driving the sentiment surrounding the British Pound, with some positive Brexit development helping the pair to stage a goodish rebound from an intraday low level of 1.2942. According to a report, via the Business Insider, the EU member states are reportedly willing to consider a Brexit deal, which will allow Britain to remain in the single market for goods while opting out of the free movement of people. The news provided a minor boost to the British Pound and prompted some short-covering move from a support marked by a downward sloping descending trend-channel formation on the daily chart. The uptick, however, lacked any strong follow-through as investors believed that any such deal is likely to get rejected in the UK Parliament as it will limit the country’s ability to strike a new free trade deal.

 

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30Jul
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Forex Research Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Falls Despite Strongest US GDP Growth in Nearly Four Years
Forex – GBP: Bank of England to Reveal All Next Week
Forex – EUR/USD recovers modestly on Friday, remains in a range

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair rebounded on Friday after US economic data but is still headed toward a negative weekly performance. After the ECB and US GDP data, it remains in a range, moving sideways, although closer to the lower bound. On Friday, the US dollar corrected to the downside, after rising on Thursday and pushed EUR/USD to the upside. Before the recovery, the pair bottomed at 1.1619, the lowest since July 19. The pair found resistance at 1.1660 and it is about to end the week, moving between that level and 1.1645, down 60 pips from the level it had a week ago. Despite the ECB decision and US data, EUR/USD continues to move within a small range. The para managed to avoid a daily close under 1.1630 that would point to more losses. To the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 1.1680/90, the 20-day moving average.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair managed to bounce off lows, albeit held on to its daily trading range following the release of US GDP print. The pair stalled overnight retracement slide from levels beyond the 1.3200 handle and found some support at lower levels after the advance US GDP report showed that the US economy expanded at an annualized pace of 4.1% during the second quarter of 2018. Although the headline reading was better than 2.0% growth recorded in the previous quarter, it wasn’t enough to provide any meaningful lift to the US Dollar and helped the pair to rebound from an intraday low level of 1.3082. The data, however, cemented expectations for a gradual Fed rate hike through the end of this year and thus, did little to prompt any aggressive USD selling. Moreover, investors also seemed to refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the highly anticipated BoE monetary policy update next week.

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24Jul
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Forex Market Report

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Steadies, Yen Pares Back Early Gains
Forex – EUR/USD bounces off lows, reclaims 1.1720
Forex – Trump Comments Knock Dollar, Yen Up on BoJ Speculation

EUR/USD

EUR/USD now alternates gains with losses ahead of the opening bell across the pond, managing to stage a rebound from 1.1690 to the vicinity of 1.1730, where met some decent hurdle. Spot keeps navigating the upper end of the recent range above 1.1700 the figure amidst a generalized sideline theme in the global markets. On the USD-side, the greenback stays trapped within a tight range against the backdrop of rising yields in the US 10-year note and always wary of headlines coming from the US-China trade dispute. In the docket, US Chicago Fed index rebounded to 0.43 in June, while Existing Home Sales during the same period are due later. At the moment, the pair is losing 0.05% at 1.1714 and a breakdown of 1.1690 (10-day sma) would target 1.1676 (21-day sma) and then 1.1575 (low Jul.19). On the flip side, the next hurdle at 1.1748 (high Jul.17) followed by 1.1792 (high Jul.9) and finally 1.1853 (high Jun.14).

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair quickly reversed an early European session dip to 1.3113, albeit continued with its struggle to make it immediate barrier near mid-1.3100s. Despite a bearish development, wherein the EU leaders rejected the UK PM Theresa May’s current Brexit plan, the pair continued gaining positive traction at the start of a new trading week and was supported by a follow-through US Dollar selling bias. The US President Donald Trump’s comments on Friday, showing displeasure over the Fed’s
monetary tightening and the recent dollar strength, kept the USD bulls on the defensive and helped the pair to build on last week’s goodish rebound from YTD lows. The bullish momentum, however, lacked any strong conviction, with easing USD bearish pressure capping the pair near a confluence resistance comprising of 200-hour SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.3363-1.2957 recent downfall.

 

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