Daily Archives: July 18, 2018

18Jul

Singapore Stock Watch: UOB is top bank pick for RHB as NIM augmenting balance property checks

Singapore Stock Watch: RHB is keeping up UOB as its best pick in the Singapore managing an account part given future NIM (Net Interest Margin) enlarging would balance negative impacts from the as of late reported government measures to cool Singapore’s private property advertise.

What’s more, administration’s aim to bring down its CAR (compound yearly rate) could conceivably give financial specialists more profits.

“We trust the surge in UOB’s P/BV between 2003-2007 FFR (Federal assets rate) upcycle could be rehashed in the current FFR upcycle,” says investigator Leng Seng Choon in a Wednesday report, “We anticipate that 2Q18 profit will be in accordance with our desires, with advance extension supporting net premium salary development.”

For 2Q18, administration has demonstrated that more spotlight would be set on the corporate section, which creates bring down edge by and large. Furthermore, more top notch fluid resources because of the more hazardous worldwide condition could keep yields stifled. Notwithstanding, the higher Sibor (Singapore Interbank Offered Rate) will be a positive for NIM.

“Generally speaking, we gauge 2Q18 NIM to be possibly more extensive than 1Q18’s 1.84%, which was 3bps higher than 4Q17’s. We trust 2Q18 credit development will be couple with administration’s direction of high single-digit for FY18,” says Leng.

On a more extended term viewpoint, the continuous increments in the US FFR will likewise convert into more extensive NIM. RHB is estimating NIM to enlarge facilitate in consequent quarters, and are anticipating FY20 NIM of 1.97%.

 

Epic Research Singapore

The July 5 declaration by the legislature on measures to cool Singapore’s private property market could moderate advance development all the more clearly by 2020 and past.

Throughout the following 1-2 years, loaning to the property portion is probably going to be upheld by advances officially endorsed in 1H18 and before, as drawdown will be continuous throughout the following couple of quarters.

“We are guaging advance extension of 8% and 6.5% for FY18 and FY19 individually at UOB,” says Leng.

The exchange war between the US and China is relied upon to affect the riches administration business. Riches administration AUM is probably going to be influenced also. Be that as it may, advance development in 2Q18 should prompt more credit related charges.

“Look after ‘purchase’ with $33.30 target cost or 1.43 book esteem, which we apply to our gauge FY19 book estimation of $23.35. In the course of recent years, UOB has exchanged at a normal P/BV of 1.24x. We trust the higher P/BV target is sensible given the enhancing NIM condition.

As at 2.58pm, shares in UOB are exchanging 1 penny higher at $25.93.

18Jul
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Forex Market Report| Epic Research

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex – Dollar Hits Day’s Highs on Powell Testimony
Forex – EUR/USD tumbles to sub-1.1700 area ahead of Powell
Forex – GBP/USD tumbles to lows, around mid-1.3100s on Brexit concerns

EUR/USD

After clinching fresh tops in the 1.1740/50 band in early trade, EUR/USD met a wave of selling orders and has now retreated to the 1.1700/1.1690 band. The pair gave away initial gains beyond 1.1700 the figure and is now remain under pressure in light of the upcoming semi-annual testimony by Fed’s J.Powell before the Senate Banking Committee. USD gathered extra traction after US June’s Industrial and Manufacturing Production expanded beyond consensus at a monthly 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. On the not-so-bright-side, Capacity Utilization Rate came in at 78.0%. missing estimates albeit higher than May’s 77.7%. Looking ahead, investors expect Powell to deliver a message in line with the statement published at the June meeting, although attention has also shifted to the yield curve and the continuation of the gradual path when comes to raising rates. At the moment, the pair is losing 0.12% at 1.1696 facing the next support at 1.1663 (21-day sma) seconded by 1.1615 (low Jul.13) and finally 1.1527 (low Jun.29).

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair extended its sharp intraday slide and tumbled around 120-pips from the post-UK jobs data swing high level of 1.3269. The latest UK political headlines, wherein Labour party members were said to support the amendment offered by rebel Tory MPs to keep Britain in the customs union after Brexit raised concerns about the UK PM Theresa May’s future and prompted some aggressive selling around the British Pound. This coupled with resurgent US Dollar demand, amid expectations about an upbeat economic outlook from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual congressional testimony, added to the downward pressure surrounding the major. The ongoing sharp decline could also be attributed to some cross-driven weakness, steaming out of a sudden spike witnessed around the EUR/GBPcross.

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18Jul

TODAY’S COMEX GOLD SIGNAL AND DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

TODAY’S COMEX GOLD SIGNAL

TODAY’S COMEX GOLD SIGNAL

TODAY’S COMEX GOLD SIGNAL

TODAY’S COMEX GOLD SIGNAL

INTERNATIONAL COMEX NEWS

  • Gold prices fell to a two-and-a-half year low on Tuesday, as a stronger dollar weighed on the precious metal and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell backed gradual rate increases. Comex gold futures for August delivery decreased 0.86% to $1,229.20 a troy ounce as of 10:37 AM ET (14:37 GMT). The price of gold fell as Powell reiterated the central bank should gradually increase interest rates. The Fed raised rates twice this year and is expected to raise rates at least once more before the end of the year.
  • Before the U.S.-China trade war, American pig processors exported nine out of every 10 pigs’ feet and heads they shipped overseas to China and Hong Kong – for prices higher than they would fetch anywhere else. Those parts and others that most Americans won’t eat – hearts, tongues, stomachs, entrails – have a special place in Chinese culinary culture and, consequently, in the profit margins of U.S. pork exporters.
  • Global benchmark Brent crude oil hit a three-month low on Tuesday as worries over supply disruptions eased and the focus moved to increasing production and potential damage to global growth from the U.S.-China trade dispute. Benchmark Brent crude oil (LCOc1) fell 49 cents to an intraday low of $71.35 a barrel, its lowest since April 17, before recovering to around $71.65, down 19 cents, by 1020 GMT.

Global benchmark Brent crude oil hit a three-month low on Tuesday as worries over supply disruptions eased and the focus moved to increasing production and potential damage to global growth from the U.S.-China trade dispute. Benchmark Brent crude oil (LCOc1) fell 49 cents to an intraday low of $71.35 a barrel, its lowest since April 17, before recovering to around $71.65, down 19 cents, by 1020 GMT.

ECONOMY NEWS

  • The European Central Bank should not tie its hands too early when it comes to future monetary policy decisions, but look instead at how the economy pans out, Finland’s new central bank governor Olli Rehn told Reuters on Tuesday. The ECB said last month it expects to end its 2.6 trillion euro ($3.0 trillion) bond-buying program at the end of the year and to keep interest rates at their current, record low level “through the summer of 2019”, leading investors to price in a hike in October of next year.
  • U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, discounting the risk that a trade war may throw a global recovery off track, said the economy is on the cusp of “several years” where the job market remains strong and inflation stays around the Fed’s 2 percent target. In written testimony delivered to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, the Fed chair signaled not just that he believes the economy is doing well, but that an era of stable growth may continue provided the Fed gets its policy decisions right.
  • The Russian foreign ministry, citing a court ruling, said on Tuesday that Business France trade agency in Moscow, which Paris has now decided to shut down, had been functioning without any “legal basis”. France said on Monday it had decided to shut its Business France trade agency in Russia after what it said was a long period of negotiations with local authorities following Moscow’s expulsion of its director.

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