INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ :
- FOREX -Dollar languishes near 3-week lows; Aussie retreats
- FOREX -AUD/USD edges lower but remains close to 1-1/2 month peak
- FOREX -NZD/USD re-approaches 2-month highs in late trade
The JPY/USD pair trades modestly flats at 120.17, supported above 120.09 lows, which coincides with the hourly 100-SMA. The USD/JPY continues to trades around a flat-line ahead of the European open as thin volumes and no fresh fundamental triggers keep the major side-lined. The pair is divided by the dropping 2015 Fed rate-hike bets on one hand and further easing talks from the BOJ later this month.However, in the week ahead,inflation figures from the US and China while lot of Fed speaks may provide that much needed impetus to the dollar-yen pair and thus, might break away from the recent range-trade.To the upside, the next resistance is located at 120.25/31 (daily R1 & R2) beyond which 120.56/60 (Oct 5 Highs & 50-DMA) could be tested. Above the last, the pair could climb further towards 121/121.02 (round number & Sept 17 High). To the downside immediate support might be located at 120.04/05 (Hourly 50 & 200-SMA), below which 119.22-21 (Sept 29 & 24 Lows) could be exposed. A breach of the last, the pair could drop to 118.83 (Sept 8 Low) levels.
The Euro looks poised to continue higher against the US Dollar after prices took out the top of a Triangle consolidation pattern. The breakout suggests the upside correction launched in mid-March has more room to develop before the larger multi-year down trend resumes. Near-term resistance is now at 1.1432, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a challenge of the 50% level at 1.1539. Alternatively, a move below resistance-turned-support at 1.1265 clears the way for a descent to the 1.1028-86 area, marked by the September 3 low and a rising trend line.We continue to see Euro gains as corrective within the context of a structural decline launched in mid-2008. With that in mind, we will opt not to pursue a long position. Instead, we will wait for the upswing to show signs of exhaustion and look to enter short once an attractive opportunity to do so presents itself.
- BUY GBP/USD ABOVE 1.5380 TARGET 1.5400 1.5430 SL 1.5350
- SELL GBP/USD BELOW 1.5320 TARGET 1.5300 1.5270 SL 1.5350